Fantasy checkdown: Dalton in '14
By Tom Carpenter
ESPN INSIDER
Andy Dalton had an intriguing 2013 campaign in fantasy terms, ranking as the No. 6 quarterback in standard ESPN leagues. He posted career-high numbers in most categories, including 586 pass attempts, 4,296 yards, 7.3 yards per pass and a 55.8 QBR. Still, there is room for improvement after he tossed 20 interceptions (also a career-high mark).
The question at hand for 2014 is whether his production will improve or decrease under new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, who has a preference for pounding the ball with a heavy rushing attack.
"Jackson sounds like he is out of the less is more school and he’s talking like he’s not going to put as much pressure on Dalton to win games with his arm," wrote Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com. "Maybe the bigger question is what kind of throws Jackson is going to ask Dalton to make."
Hobson noted that former OC Jay Gruden liked to "work outside the numbers and down the sidelines," which creates longer throws, and suggested that perhaps Jackson will focus more on shorter routes to increase Dalton's accuracy and limit the pressure on the quarterback.
That could help improve his TD/INT ratio (1.65), which ranked 17th in the NFL. On the other hand, if Jackson focuses on the run, as expected, Dalton's volume of throws likely will recede. Odds are that Dalton will be a middle-of-the-pack fantasy QB in '14.
Here are some other fantasy-relevant notes from the past week:
By Tom Carpenter
ESPN INSIDER
Andy Dalton had an intriguing 2013 campaign in fantasy terms, ranking as the No. 6 quarterback in standard ESPN leagues. He posted career-high numbers in most categories, including 586 pass attempts, 4,296 yards, 7.3 yards per pass and a 55.8 QBR. Still, there is room for improvement after he tossed 20 interceptions (also a career-high mark).
The question at hand for 2014 is whether his production will improve or decrease under new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, who has a preference for pounding the ball with a heavy rushing attack.
"Jackson sounds like he is out of the less is more school and he’s talking like he’s not going to put as much pressure on Dalton to win games with his arm," wrote Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com. "Maybe the bigger question is what kind of throws Jackson is going to ask Dalton to make."
Hobson noted that former OC Jay Gruden liked to "work outside the numbers and down the sidelines," which creates longer throws, and suggested that perhaps Jackson will focus more on shorter routes to increase Dalton's accuracy and limit the pressure on the quarterback.
That could help improve his TD/INT ratio (1.65), which ranked 17th in the NFL. On the other hand, if Jackson focuses on the run, as expected, Dalton's volume of throws likely will recede. Odds are that Dalton will be a middle-of-the-pack fantasy QB in '14.
Here are some other fantasy-relevant notes from the past week:
- Joseph Fauria became a bit of a fantasy darling in '13 by pulling in seven touchdowns. His overall value was limited, though, because he caught only 18 passes for 207 yards. That could change in '14, if Brandon Pettigrew leaves as a free agent and new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi uses his tight ends in the manner the New Orleans Saints used Jimmy Graham. "Lombardi says he's brought the Saints playbook with him ... Fauria said he's talked to new assistant head coach/tight ends coach Ron Prince a couple of times this offseason and said both of them have high expectations for his play in 2014," wrote Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com. Don't expect Fuaria to become the next Graham, but he could be an intriguing flier on draft day, if he is the top tight end in the Lions offense.
- We all know that Alex Smith has been a middling fantasy quarterback during his NFL career. Even with Andy Reid calling plays for Smith last season, he finished as just the 16th-best quarterback in Fantasyland. However, Smith performed much better during the second half of the season, when Reid opened up more of his playbook for the QB. During the final eight games, Smith had 14 touchdowns and just 3 INTs. If Reid continues to give Smith more responsibility in the offense next season, he could have some intrigue in two-quarterback leagues, especially if the Chiefs add some play-making talent to their WR corps.
- In related news, Smith will be getting a potential play-making pass-catcher back in the form of TE Travis Kelce, who missed his rookie campaign last year due to knee surgery. The Chiefs used a third-round pick to draft Kelce, and since Reid's top tight ends with the Philadelphia Eagles often racked up quality numbers, he carried some fantasy intrigue. "He was their move tight end, the one they would send in motion or line up in a variety of spots," noted ESPN Chiefs reporter Adam Teicher. "Kelce, in offseason practice and training camp, showed he could get down the field to make catches more like a wide receiver than a tight end." Assuming that he is healthy by Week 1, Kelce could be a deep sleeper in Fantasyland.
- Those of us who have Jermichael Finley in a keeper league could be at a bit of a crossroads, not unlike the Green Bay Packers or any other team that may be interested in signing the free agent. We all know he has the potential to rack up big stats, but we've only seen him actually do so in short bursts, and now he is working his way back from serious neck surgery. However, his surgeon seems pleased with his progress. According to Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the doctor said that "there’s a '99.9%' chance the fusion will fully heal. At that point, agent Blake Baratz said this week, Maroon would clear Finley for 'full football activity.'" Finley's agent added that the doctor "believes sometime in the next 4-8 weeks his [neck] should fully heal.” If Finley does prove to be healthy and joins a team with a TE-friendly offense, fantasy owners should hang on to him as a keeper and hope he finally puts it all together on the field in '14.
